India's chances and the quirks of the tie-breaker rules (27 May 1999)
After watching that scintillating, mind-boggling performance by Saurav and Rahul on Wednesday, a performance that dwarfed even that 237 run partnership between Sachin and Rahul against Kenya, I spent a little time analyzing the renewed situation from
27-May-1999
27 May 1999
India's chances and the quirks of the tie-breaker rules
Vasudevan Mangalam for CricInfo
After watching that scintillating, mind-boggling performance by Saurav
and Rahul on Wednesday, a performance that dwarfed even that 237 run
partnership between Sachin and Rahul against Kenya, I spent a little
time analyzing the renewed situation from the point of view of India's
chances in this wonderfully unpredictable World Cup tournament. Their
chances are good; I would say very good on an optimistic day. After
being down in the dumps with two losses, of which one against a weak
team they could not afford to lose to, India has emerged with serious
potentials. Let us go through different scenarios.
All teams in Group A has exactly one watch remaining. India vs England,
South Africa vs Zimbabwe, Kenya vs Sri Lanka. To simplify matters I will
discount ties and no results.
If India beats England, no matter what happens in other matches, India
will advance to super six. Reason? As Sri Lanka can have at most 4
points and Kenya at most 2, we have three teams (India, England and
Zimbabwe) after two spots. If Zimbabwe loses to South Africa, they are
out; South Africa, India and England will then advance, taking with them
4 points, 2 points and 0 points respectively. If Zimbabwe beats South
Africa we have three teams who have beaten each other, all with 6
points. Now, with -.241 net run rate, even if they demolish South
Africa, they can't hope to catch up with India who has a net run rate of
1.293 which will go up after they beat England. Zimbabwe may catch up
with England if England loses badly to India and Zimbabwe beats South
Africa. Most likely scenario, then, is SA, IND, ENG with 4,2,0.
Now assume India loses to England. If Zimbabwe beats South Africa, India
is out. Otherwise, England will have the second spot with 8 points and
will advance with 2 points. For the rest, everything depends on the
match between Sri Lanka and Kenya. If Kenya beats Sri Lanka, India is
out because the third spot will then go to Zimbabwe who, along with
India, has 4 points and has beaten India. If Sri Lanka beats Kenya, all
is well. We have three teams who have beaten each other and by net run
rate India will advance. India will have to lose to England extremely
badly and Sri Lanka should beat Kenya extremely well. If you spent some
time calculating the actual numbers, you will see what the chances are.
For example, if the winning team bats first in both cases, the combined
victory margin will have to be close to 500 for Sri Lanka to push India
out and claim a super six spot. If both England and Sri Lanka make 325
runs each, then if India and Kenya can make over 75 each, India is in.
Zimbabwe's chances are even less, as their net run rate after losing to
SA will be lower than the current -.241. For India to lower their NRR to
that level, India has to lose by 313 runs minimum.
I do not know if it occurred to you, but if India loses to England and
Zimbabwe loses to SA, a very bizarre situation arises. Now, it is not
unusual for a team's chances to be affected by the outcome of another
match. Normally what happens is the following. Team A is very interested
in a match between teams B and C because if B wins B is in, A is out and
if C wins A is in, B is out. The fate of C is independent of the outcome
of the match. In all these years, I have never encountered a scenario
where the fortunes of A and D are depended on a match between B and C, a
match that has no influence on the fate of either B or C. If B wins A is
out, D is in and if C wins D is out, A is in! And in both cases B and C
are both out! That is exactly what is going to happen here. If Kenya
beats Sri Lanka, there will be two teams, India and Zimbabwe, with four
points and as Zimbabwe beat India they will get the third spot. If Sri
Lanka beats Kenya, there will be three teams who have beaten one another
with 4 points and hence the ranking will be determined by NRR. India
will get the third spot then.
To summarise, India will miss out only if India loses to England and one
of the two things happen - either Kenya beats Sri Lanka or Zimbabwe
beats South Africa.
Now, I estimate the probability of India beating England as about 0.6.
My estimates of South Africa beating England and Sri Lanka beating Kenya
are 0.95 and 0.8 respectively. So the probability that India will
advance is estimated to be 0.6 + 0.4*0.95*0.8 = 0.904. If you do not
agree with my estimates, just substitute your estimated chances into
this formula to get the final probability.
I can safely say that this World Cup was the most exciting tournament I
have ever watched since 1983.
Vasudevan Mangalam,
Curtin University of Technology,
GPO Box U1987,
Perth WA 6845,
Australia.