Will the real England please stand up?

England's winter campaign is ending as it began in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka before Christmas - amid monsoonal downpours and mounting frustration. But it has been a giddy six months nonetheless: while the one-day side has spun round and round in circles, the Test team has blossomed from fretful underachievers to hoodoo-breaking heroes, and that is all that matters to the vast majority of English cricket fans.

But how much progress has Team England really made this winter? The answer is not to be found in soggy Grenada, but back home in Blighty, where their next opponents are already planning their latest heist. Of all the opponents to face in the early months of an English summer, New Zealand are the best-equipped for the conditions - and they have even been allowed a head-start in their preparations. By the time West Indies fly over in June, England's Caribbean cruise could be a distant memory.

For the moment, though, England are flying high. They boast a four-pronged pace attack of youth, variety and genuine hostility; a top six that has barely altered since the retirement of Mike Atherton in 2001, and according to the latest ICC world rankings, they have nudged their way up to No. 3 on the table. And yet, there is something strangely underwhelming about the manner of England's latest triumph. They won because of their seam bowlers, but in spite of so many other factors.

The shortcomings are glaring. Michael Vaughan and Marcus Trescothick contributed a paltry 170 runs to England's three Test victories. Chris Read's wicketkeeping was sublime, but his batting (36 runs at 12) was far removed from the Gilchristian standards of the modern age. Ashley Giles reverted to anonymity once again. Andrew Flintoff still did not convince as a Test No. 6. Meanwhile, the engine-room of Butcher, Hussain and Thorpe is not getting any younger. Whether Brian Lara's Antiguan antics were the last twitches of a bloodied opponent, or a foretaste of batterings to come, they were a timely reminder that England's victory was far, far too easy.

In fact, apart from a few weeks of R&R (and an extra spinner in Gareth Batty), there was very little difference between the team that rampaged to victory in the first Test in Jamaica, and the team that was routed by an innings and 215 runs by Sri Lanka in December. The batting line-up was identical on both occasions, and man-for-man, the bowling was not radically dissimilar either. Matthew Hoggard would later become a hero in Barbados, but in Sri Lanka he had been jettisoned after one Test, in favour of another willing workhorse, James Kirtley. And as for James Anderson, his stock may have fallen in the past 12 months, but Simon Jones's contribution in the West Indies (11 wickets at 34, including one five-wicket haul) was every bit as mercurial.

That, of course, leaves one man - and, as Lara has been at pains to point out all winter, one man does not make a team. But ultimately, Steve Harmison was the difference between the sides. When he flew home from Dhaka, after taking nine wickets in the opening Test against Bangladesh, England mixed and matched for four Tests in a row (even Richard Johnson and Martin Saggers got a pre-Christmas look-in). One wonders what might have happened to England's dream team if they had started the Caribbean leg on that featherbed in Antigua, rather than in Jamaica?

England are never more of a danger (to themselves) than when they appear to have hit upon the perfect combination. The last time it happened was in the winter of 2000-01, when they pulled off back-to-back series wins in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Then, as now, it was achieved with an injury-free and settled team, but on that tour, England truly were at the peak of their powers. There was no place for the weak links to hide, and consequently neither Ian Salisbury nor Graeme Hick ever played Test cricket again.

But the enormity of their achievement caught up with England, and everything came apart at the seams within minutes of Australia's arrival the following summer. Injury restricted Graham Thorpe and Michael Vaughan to one Ashes Test between them; Darren Gough and Andrew Caddick were collared, and for the series opener at Edgbaston, England's middle order consisted of Ian Ward and Usman Afzaal.

Australia do not return until 2005, but New Zealand are arguably an even more potent wrecking-ball, for the simple fact of their defiantly lowly reputation. With seven Tests and a glut of one-day matches to come this summer, one wonders if England can keep the miracle going. If Harmison breaks down, if Trescothick cannot find his form, or if age catches up with Hussain and Thorpe, we will discover soon enough just how good this England team really is.