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It's Warne ... for now

A statistical analysis of Shane Warne and his contribution to Australian wins

Rahul Bhatia
04-Jul-2005
A swish, a snick, and when the man at slip rose with a smile, Shane Warne finally had his cherished record. He raised the ball to a rousing ovation as victim No. 533 turned and walked away. It didn't matter that Mutiah Muralitharan would be back making the batsmen sweat all too soon. Warne had it for now, after being only one painful wicket away in early July, as Sri Lanka's battled on in fading light, leaving him stranded on 527, equal with Murali. The record seemed distant then, as Murali was expected to play South Africa at home shortly after. But hampered by his outlawed doosra, he grabbed only five in the first Test, before a shoulder injury sidelined him for four months. Here is a progression of this age's most exciting bowling race:
Progression of wickets Warne (no. of Tests) Murali (no. of Tests)
100 23 27
200 42 42
300 63 58
400 92 72
500 108 87
519 111 89
527 112 90
531 113 91
533 114* -
* denotes Test in progress
Though Murali has played 23 fewer matches than Warne, both have strikingly similar ways of dismissing batsmen. For example, both are roughly equal in stumpings, catches off their own bowling, and catches taken by the fielders.
Mode of dismissal Warne Muralitharan
Wkts 533 532
Bowled 89 126
Caught 312 290
Caught by fielder 236 239
Caught by wk 57 29
Caught and bowled 19 22
Hitwicket 0 1
LBW 103 87
Stumped 27 28
An analysis of Warne's bowling reveals that, like most good performers, he does better away from home. The strike rate and the average fall, but the average number of wickets he takes in a Test remains more or less the same.
Overall Home Away
Matches 114 52 62
Wickets 534 235 299
Avg 25.47 26.23 25.24
S/R 59.9 62.2 57.57
5 wkt 27 12 15
10 wkt 8 4 4
How much has Warne contributed in Australian victories? A lot. Of the 534 wickets he has claimed so far, 378 have come in 66 Australian wins. That leaves 156 wickets in the 48 games his team didn't win. Those wickets cost nearly 37 each.
Warne in Aussie wins
Matches 66
Wickets 378
Avg 21.13
S/R 50.7
5 wkts 21
10 wkts 7
With the bowling record in his name, Warne is nearly 90 wickets clear of Glenn McGrath in Australia's list of top wicket-takers. With Dennis Lillee, Richie Benaud and Craig McDermott filling up the other spots, the man is in good company. It's notable that both Warne and McGrath have taken part in more victories than the other three.
Matches Wkts Avg S/R 10w/5w Wkts per Test Win %
Warne 114 534 25.47 59.75 8/27 4.68 59.3
McGrath 99 446 21.64 52.00 3/24 4.51 65.3
Lillee 70 355 23.92 52.02 7/23 5.07 44.3
McDermott 71 291 28.63 57.00 2/14 4.1 38
Benaud 63 248 27.03 77.05 1/16 3.94 38.1
And that's not the only place Warne stands tall. Of the five, Australia have won more matches when Warne has taken a five-wicket haul in an innings. Nearly four in five matches are won when Warne takes a five-for, while McDermott is at the bottom of the list (no shame there, it's a pretty good list), with his five-wicket hauls bringing victory only 57.1% of the time.
Player Win % with 5 wkt haul
Warne 77.78
Lillee 73.9
Benaud 62.5
McGrath 58.3
McDermott 57.1